#806 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* New Mexico State +1 over Sam Houston State, Thursday at 9 PM ET - NMSU has one of the biggest, if not the biggest, home/road dichotomy in college basketball. They are 0-12 SU on the road this season but a near perfect 11-1 SU at home. Their only home loss was vs one of the top teams in the MWC, New Mexico, and that was by 1 point. The Aggies are finally back home after losing 3 straight games, all on the road. We like the value here getting NMSU as a home dog (opening line +1) as we have them favored in this game in our power ratings. These 2 met in late January and SHSU was favored by 5 at home which means they should be a dog in this game of 2 of 3 points for the normal home/road swing. Sam Houston is off back to back wins but both at home. They haven’t been very successful on the road this year with a 4-9 SU record. They are a poor shooting team (322nd in FG%) but on the road it’s even worse where they hit just 39% of their shots and score 66 PPG. That’ll be tough to overcome in this road game vs a New Mexico State team that allows their opponents to make only 36% of their shots here at home while holding them to 61 PPG. When these 2 met 3+ weeks ago, Sam Houston won by 12 and the difference in that game was from beyond the arc. NMSU made only 4 three point shots (hit only 20% for the game) while Bearkats hit 10 outscoring the Aggies by 18 from deep. We expect that to turn around here as NMSU is a poor shooting team on the road, but at home they hit 41% of their triples on the season. We’ll take the points with the home team tonight.