#642 ASA TOP PLAY ON 10* Wake Forest -2 over Duke, Saturday at 2 PM ET - Just a massively huge game for Wake here. They currently sit on the bubble for the NCAA tourney and really need a signature win down the stretch. This would absolutely qualify. WF will most likely be favored in each of their last 4 games so this is their final regular season shot to make a statement. These 2 met just 2 weeks ago and Duke won that game at home by 8. The Devils largest lead of the game was just 9 and it was mainly tight throughout. Duke led by 5 with 30 seconds left in the game and the FT disparity was heavily in favor of the Devils (+9 FT’s made) as it usually is at Cameron Indoor Stadium. Duke outshot Wake 47% to 39% yet the game was still very tight most of the way. From beyond the arc the Deacs were just 6 of 26 in that game (23%) which is way below their season average of 37% which is 25th best in the nation. We look for the Demon Deacons to shoot much better at home on Saturday where they have made 50% of their shot & 42% of their 3 pointers this season while averaging 85 PPG. They are also undefeated at home this year (14-0 SU & 10-3-1 ATS) including 8 wins over top 100 teams. The Devils do have a winning record on the road this year but they’ve been a bit fortunate in their road games over the last month or so. Example, they just beat Miami on the road on Wednesday but the Canes played without Pack & Cleveland, both starters who average 14 PPG. They also played @ FSU last Saturday and won but the Noles are a team in turmoil right now losing 6 of their last 9 games including 4 home games. Duke has played only 2 top 50 teams on the road all season and split those games beating Va Tech (who is 50th) and losing @ UNC. Wake is currently ranked 20th in the KenPom power ratings which is near where we have them as well. Last year the Blue Devils traveled to WF as a favorite and lost by double digits to a Demon Deacon team that was rated 50+ spots lower this this team. It’s Duke’s 3rd straight road game (Saturday, Wed, Saturday) and Wake is off a blowout home win on Tuesday vs a Pitt team that was rolling (won 5 straight entering that game). That means the Deacs get an extra day to prepare for this one as well while Duke continues their travel schedule. A non ranked team favored at home over a top 10 team? We agree and expect Wake to win and cover this one.