Lost in the glare of the recent brilliance of rookies Kareem Hunt and Deshaun Watson is that these are two conservative teams that operate at a slow pace, run the ball a lot and have good defenses. The Texans just could have the best defense in the NFL with J.J. Watt back healthy.

This is a sell low on a total that is higher than it should be based in part on the Texans putting up 57 points on the Titans last week and Hunt's fast start. Watson is going to be up-and-down. Justin Houston is getting back to his dominant pass rushing skills of two years when he had 22 sacks. Marcus Peters is a shutdown cornerback. I find Bill O'Brien to be one of the most conservative coaches in the league with a play not-to-lose attitude.

On the flip side, I see Alex Smith reverting back to his old check-down, game-manager way of playing especially going against this caliber of defense on the road. Hunt took advantage of a Patriots defense that was far worse than anyone could imagine to put up awesome statistics. He'll find things much rougher here.