The Mavericks rank among the bottom three teams in scoring and shooting percentage. So it's not a huge surprsie they've gone Under in seven of their last nine games. It should be eight of their last nine, but one of their Overs during this span happened only because of overtime.

Dallas is committed to rookie point guard Dennis Smith Jr. and he has been cold missing 27 of his last 36 shots from the floor. The Grizzlies are minus Mike Conley, their star point guard. He's out with an Achilles injury replaced by Mario Chalmers. This is another plus for the Under as Chalmers is more about defense than offense. Chalmers hounded Damian Lillard into missing 10 of 15 shot attempts in the Grizzlies' last game, a 100-92 loss to Portland on Monday.

The Grizzlies haven't been happy with their defensive play. Yet only five teams are giving up fewer points per game than Memphis and only three have a better defensive field goal percentage.

I see the Grizzlies putting up a strong defensive effort here with their offense suffering minus Conley and big man Brandan Wright. The Grizzlies lose offense in the frontcourt, too, with reserve center Deyonta Davis and forward Jarell Martin getting Wright's minutes.

The Under has cashed in seven of Memphis' last nine home games. The Grizzlies defeated the Mavericks at home, 96-91 for a total of 187 points, when the teams last met on Oct. 26.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover is one of the top NBA handicappers in North America and he has the record to prove it: 62-36-1 on his last 99 premium/free plays, including 40-23 on his last 63.)