PREMIUM
Stephen Nover's NFL High Roller Parlay Playoff
(NFL) Buffalo vs. Jacksonville,
Total: 40.00 | -101.00 Over
Result: Win
Total: 40.00 | -101.00 Over
Result: Win
First off, I don't see the Bills scoring many points here - if any. The Bills rank 31st in passing. Their best skill position player is LeSean McCoy and he will be severly hampered by an ankle injury if he even plays.
Tyrod Taylor can't attack downfield. He doesn't have the necessary talent to do that, nor does he have the wide receiving weapons. Buffalo has the worst wide receivers in the AFC. If McCoy is ruled out, Taylor's running backs will be overweight, over-the-hill third-stringer Mike Tolbert and practice squad player Marcus Murphy.
Making this far worse for the Bills is they are on the road against maybe the premier defense in football. The Jaguars rank No. 2 in fewest yards per game and scoring defense giving up of 16.8 points per game. They led the NFL with 55 sacks and set a franchise-record with 21 interceptions in leading the NFL in pass defense. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell, linebacker Telvin Smith and cornerback Jalen Ramsey rank among the best at their respective positions.
Buffalo's strength is a bend-but-don't-break defense. If you discount their games against the powerful Patriots, the Bills held their last four opponents to 12.2 points a game.
The Jaguars aren't going to do anything that would jeopardize winning this game such as attacking downfield with erratic Blake Bortles. They are going to play a conservative, field-position game with lots of running plays. The Jaguars have three good running backs. Bortles can be turnover prone and he has inexperienced receivers. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is not a moron. He won't take chances attacking downfield.
The Jaguars' offensive line isn't outstanding at run blocking. The Jaguars averaged fewer than four yards a carry in five of their last seven games. But the Bills ranked 29th in run defense. So that's where the Jaguars will attack while not risking any Bortles' interceptions. Lots of running eats up lots of clock.
Tyrod Taylor can't attack downfield. He doesn't have the necessary talent to do that, nor does he have the wide receiving weapons. Buffalo has the worst wide receivers in the AFC. If McCoy is ruled out, Taylor's running backs will be overweight, over-the-hill third-stringer Mike Tolbert and practice squad player Marcus Murphy.
Making this far worse for the Bills is they are on the road against maybe the premier defense in football. The Jaguars rank No. 2 in fewest yards per game and scoring defense giving up of 16.8 points per game. They led the NFL with 55 sacks and set a franchise-record with 21 interceptions in leading the NFL in pass defense. Defensive lineman Calais Campbell, linebacker Telvin Smith and cornerback Jalen Ramsey rank among the best at their respective positions.
Buffalo's strength is a bend-but-don't-break defense. If you discount their games against the powerful Patriots, the Bills held their last four opponents to 12.2 points a game.
The Jaguars aren't going to do anything that would jeopardize winning this game such as attacking downfield with erratic Blake Bortles. They are going to play a conservative, field-position game with lots of running plays. The Jaguars have three good running backs. Bortles can be turnover prone and he has inexperienced receivers. Jacksonville coach Doug Marrone is not a moron. He won't take chances attacking downfield.
The Jaguars' offensive line isn't outstanding at run blocking. The Jaguars averaged fewer than four yards a carry in five of their last seven games. But the Bills ranked 29th in run defense. So that's where the Jaguars will attack while not risking any Bortles' interceptions. Lots of running eats up lots of clock.
