Three big reasons why I like the Patriots: Bill Belichick, Tom Brady and New England's defense. The first two reasons are obvious. The combination of home-field and Brady versus Blake Bortles are worthy of the point spread right there.

Jacksonville's defense was outstanding during much of the regular season. But Brady is at his finest against the type of zone cover style the Jaguars use. The Jaguars' defense also has been wearing down after carrying their offense for so many games. Jacksonville has given up an average of 32 points during its last four road games.

It's the Patriots defense that has allowed the fewest points since Week 5.

By far, the Patriots have the more playoff experience, big-game experience and discipline. All of that is going to matter here. The Patriots can win by talent, or by scheme and coaching. The Jaguars can't outscheme the Patriots.

Brady has a balanced attack. He'll be able to slice up the Jaguars' defense with quick slants and utilizing versatile Dion Lewis. The Patriots also are expected to get back wide receiver Chris Hogan and running back James White, one of the best pass-catching runners out of the backfield in the NFL. Hogan is a big upgrade on Phillip Dorsett and gives Brady another strong receiving target to go with Rob Gronkowski, Brandin Cooks and Danny Amendola.

The Jaguars' offense looked great against the Steelers last week. But Jacksonville has yet to achieve trusted consistency on offense relying heavily on rookie Leonard Fournette. Before putting up 45 points on the Steelers last week, the Jaguars had scored only 10 points during each of their last two games.

The Patriots aren't going to let Fournette beat them. I don't see Bortles, one of the most inaccurate throwers in the league, and his inexperienced wide receiving corps keeping up with Brady.