Miami is a top-four defensive team that is well-coached and has a solid bench. The Lakers are fancy with a lot of youth and questionable maturity. The situation sets up well here for the home Heat.

Miami has been home since Saturday. The Lakers are fat and happy winners of three in a row. Note that those victories have come against the tanking Mavericks, Kings and Hawks.

The Lakers have had a couple of days to enjoy the distractions of South Beach. LA is 1-4 ATS the past five times when playing on two days rest. The Lakers also have failed to cover during seven of their past nine visits to Miami.

The Lakers are nine games below .500 on the road. I see the veteran Heat being the more focused team. They can't afford a loss here holding on to the final playoff spot in the Eastern Conference. Miami's front-court and bench strength just improved with the return of center Kelly Olynyk from a shoulder injury. Dwayne Wade has made his presence known, too, with his savvy play.

Miami surrenders 101.6 points per game. Only three teams allow less per game. The Lakers are giving up an average of 117 points during their last six game