The first three games of this series all have gone Over with seven, nine and eight goals being scored. But I'm going to go against the grain and go Under in this Game 4.

My handicapping key is Nashville. The Predators lacked intensity in giving up four goals during the first 25 minutes of Monday's 5-3 road loss to the Avalanche.

Nashville surrendered the second-fewest goals during the regular season. The Predators are 9-1-1 to the Under after giving up five or more goals in a game. They've allowed three or fewer goals in seven of their past 10 road games. Pekka Rinne is an elite goalie who is out to redeem himself after a bad game Monday.

The series has gotten very physical. The Predators aren't going to let Nathan MacKinnon go off on them like he did Monday. So I envision a tight-checking matchup with the Avalanche playing conservative, too, trying to even the series.