It's not often you get Carlos Carrasco as an underdog. So I'm going to take advantage of this rarity.

I like Lance McCullers Jr. But the Astros are 2-5 in his last seven home starts and he's trumped in my pitcher ratings by Carrasco.

The Indians have won 69 percent of Carrasco's last 51 road starts. Carrasco has a strong history versus Houston and is pitching on extra rest. Cleveland is 16-5 the past 21 times Carrasco has pitched on five days rest.

Carrasco is 3-1 career-wise against the Astros with a 2.67 ERA. He is 2-0 and unscored upon in the two games he's pitched at Minute Maid Park.

The Indians have scored five or more runs in seven of their last 10 games. They've scored six or more runs in six of their last nine games.