I understand the Mets are dog excrement. They are 3-14 in their last 17 games, including 1-9 in their last 10.

The Mets have scored the grand total of 10 runs in their last eight games. That's an average of 1.2 runs.

But one run by the Mets just might be enough to beat the Braves because Jacob deGrom is pitching. I rate him the second-best pitcher in the National League right now in back of only Max Scherzer. No pitcher holds a lower ERA since April 21 than deGrom at 0.81. The Braves have scored one run in 18 innings against deGrom this season. He has a 1.84 ERA lifetime ERA versus Atlanta in 14 starts.

It's very rare to lay such a low price with such an elite pitcher.

The pitiful Mets offense has a chance to break out, too, against the Braves as this is shaping up as a bullpen game for Atlanta. Rookie Mike Soroka is going to start. He's been sidelined since May 12 because of a shoulder strain. The Mets faced him on May 1. Soroka has given up five earned during his last two starts spanning just 8 2/3 innings. He is going to be on a pitch count.

The huge pitching edge and fair lay price puts me on the Mets even though I have to hold my nose taking them.

(Editor's note: Stephen Nover has his strongest MLB day game total of the season going today in addition to this free selection.)