I understand the Dolphins are the worst team in the NFL. But this number is an overreaction to what happened in Week 1 when the Dolphins were blown out by the Ravens and the Patriots crushed the Steelers in the Sunday Night nationally televised game. The early number on this game, according to the oddsmakers at the Westgate, was Patriots minus 11.
Until that battering by the Ravens, the Dolphins had not lost a September home game since 2015. This is the weakest Miami team in a long time, but motivation, home field and New England offensive line injuries and state of mind counter the Patriots' huge talent and coaching edge. 
The Patriots have had trouble at this venue losing five of the past six times they have played at Miami. The Dolphins are 6-1 ATS the past seven times hosting New England. 
The Patriots are without two of their best offensive linemen with center David Andrews and right tackle Marcus Cannon out. The Patriots aren't going to put Tom Brady at risk with some wide open attack when they don't need to do that to win this game. There also is no reason for the Patriots to show anything in this game. A simple, vanilla game plan featuring lots of running is what the Patriots are likely to do. 
The heat is going to be brutal with temperatures reaching triple digits and high humidity.  
Bill Belichick isn't likely to run up a score against the Dolphins, who are coached by Brian Flores. Flores was a defensive assistant to Belichick before taking the Dolphins job. 
The Dolphins will be taking this matchup far more serious than the Patriots because of Flores' former close association with the Patriots and also to get some redemption from last week's horror show. This is going to be Miami's Super Bowl.