Total: 46.00 | -110.00 Over
I have to seriously look Over when there's a Lions home game and the total is less than a key 47. The Over has cashed in eight of the Lions' last 11 home games.
I'm not sold on Detroit's so-called defensive improvement, nor its run defense. The Lions faced mediocre rushing teams Kansas City and Seattle in their first two games. Now they get the Falcons, a top-three rushing team with the second-best all-around running back in the NFL, Bijan Robinson. Yes, Robinson already has established himself as that and he could soon overtake Christian McCaffrey as the best.
The Lions may choose to load the box to key on the Falcons' ground attack. That would be risky, though, even against Desmond Ridder because Detroit has a clustery injury problem in its secondary. Out are safeties Kerby Joseph, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson and cornerback Emmanuel Moseley. Gardner-Johnson is an underrated player. The Lions' defense isn't nearly adequate enough to withstand multiple injuries.
Jared Goff has a history of playing much better at home. He's averaged more than two TD's per game at home. David Montgomery isn't likely to play for Detroit. That's not necessarily a bad thing for the Over. Montgomery is a North-South runner who eats clock with his inside running. Minus Montgomery the Lions could make exciting rookie Jahmyr Gibbs their featured back. Gibbs has been underutilized at this early stage of the season.