Because Tua Tagovailoa missed four games due to a concussion, you can toss out Miami's season statistics. The Dolphins without Tagovailoa were terrible. They are explosive with him, one of the better offenses in the NFL.

The Dolphins are averaging 27.7 points since Tagovailoa returned four games ago. They are eighth in expected points during this time frame.

New England has gotten better offensively and worse defensively. If you discount holding the punchless Bears to three points, the Patriots have surrendered an average of 28.6 points in their last five games. New England is below average in all of the major defensive categories.

Drake Maye, though, keeps getting better. He completed 30-of-40 passes for 282 yards and two touchdowns against the Rams last week. The Dolphins have an average defense, far from dominant.