I'll accept an inflated point spread because of the absence of Brock Purdy and Nick Bosa. This is the first time in 37 games the 49ers are not favored.

The 49ers are getting close to must-win territory being just 5-5 having blown three late leads and also lost to the Chiefs.

Backup QB Brandon Allen is a veteran. But the 49ers will be relying more on superstar all-purpose back Christian McCaffrey, who has five straight games of at least 100 yards from scrimmage, including both games he's played in this season.

The Packers' defense has been propped up by 19 takeaways, fourth-best in the league. Green Bay has invested many high draft choices on defensive players and nearly all of them have disappointed. Nose tackle Kenny Clark is having a horrible season and Jaire Alexander, the Packers' lone legitimate starting-caliber cornerback, is out.

Kyle Shanahan can coach Allen up to take advantage of Green Bay's overrated defense. Allen won't lack weapons with McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle.

I'm not fooled by the Packers' 7-3 record. The Packers nearly lost to the Jaguars and then were able to block a low field goal attempt at the gun to hold off the Bears, who were averaging nine points during their previous three games.

San Francisco has come back from its previous three losses to win in its following game. The 49ers also have won their past two road games, defeating the Buccaneers and Seahawks. The Packers' last three victories have been by a combined six points. They are 0-3 the past three times they've been favored.