Navy hasn't been the same team since getting whacked by Notre Dame, 51-14, in late October. The Midshipmen have gone 2-2 since then. They got blanked by Tulane, 35-0, in their one step-up game during that span.

Now Navy is in another step-up spot - and the matchup does not work in the Midshipmen's favor.

Army is the No. 1 rushing offense in the country. Black Knights' QB Bryson Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards and scored 29 touchdowns, tying him with Ashton Jeanty for the most TD's in the nation. Navy has a small defensive interior. The Midshipmen can be run on. They rank 85th in run defense. Notre Dame and Tulane combined to rush for 485 yards against Navy,.

QB Blake Horvath missed Navy's last game, but is expected to play here. Whether Horvath, a dual-threat, is 100 percent remains to be seen. Both Navy's offense and defense have tailed off.

Army surrenders only 15 points a game, ranks 10th in fewest yards and 11th in defensive rushing yards. Army also has 19 takeaways, which ranks in the top 10.

I rate Army above Navy on both sides of the ball. The Black Knights have had only five turnovers, too, which is the fewest in the country.

So I don't see a path for Navy to stay within a touchdown of Army. I see the Black Knights building a comfortable lead, wearing down Navy and the run-oriented Midshipmen lacking a backdoor capability.