In The AFC Championship game the Triple system side is on the Denver Broncos. Game 302 at 3:00 eastern. The Broncos will have a nervous edge in this game after blowing a 21 point 1st quarter lead and losing in overtime earlier in the year on a Sunday night game in New England, in a game where their defense looked very similar to the one that collapsed last year vs Baltimore. Denver went out to a 17-0 lead last week at home over San Diego and won by 7 holding the Chargers off late. Today the Broncos will get the Patriots at home and that will be a big difference as the Pats wont be able to rush the ball for 35-40 attempts get over 200 yards on the ground here. In fact road playoff tams that scored 30 or more last out at home have failed to cover 21 of 24 times and we have a Perfect subset to that system that plays against teams that scored 40 or more in Conference Championship games. In these Championship games we see that teams that scored 30 or more and allowed 22 or less are 1-11 ats if their opponent did not score 30 or more. All favorites from -3.5 to -10 that are off at least 2 straight games where they caused 1 or no turnovers have covered 25 of 32 vs an opponent, like the Patriots that benefited from 4 or more turnovers in their last game.. Home teams have covered over 65% in these games if both teams scored 24 or more points. Denver has won 7 of the last 10 here vs The Patriots and are 3-1 with road loss revenge. The Patriots have lost and failed to cover the last 2 times they were a road dog if they scored 42 or more at home in their last game. Denver is 65+ yards better on offense and 23 yards better on defense. Bottom line is, we think the Patriots win and we note that teams in Conference Championship games that win are a solid 73-8-1 ats. Take Denver here today.