On Saturday the MLB Total of the week is on the Under in the Seattle at Tampa Bay Game. Rotation numbers 919/920 at 4:10 eastern. This game fits a rare 100% totals system that plays to the under for home favorites, like Tampa with a total that is 8 or less if they are off a home favored win by 2 or more runs and scored 4 or less runs on 10+ hits, vs an opponent off a road dog loss that scored 2 or less runs on 5+ hits and hit 10 or less ground balls and both teams had no errors. These game average under 4 runs per game since 2004. Tampa has gone under in 8 of their last 10 and 12 of 13 at home off a home win where they scored 4 or less runs but had 10 or more hits provided the total is 7 or more. In the series here between these two 27 of the last 37 have stayed under. Seattle has played under in 6 of 9. Tampa has A. Cobb going and he has a stellar 1.93 home era while going under in 4 of his 5 starts and 3 of 4 when pitching vs Seattle. Seattle counters with R. Elias who has a 3.34 road era and has gone under in 5 of 6. Look for these two to play under again tonight.



Rob Vinciletti: 2014 Belmont Stakes Entrants and Analysis


The Belmont Stakes (post time 6:52 p.m. ET, airing live on NBC)






Entrants:


No. 1: Medal Count (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)

Trainer: Dale Romans

Jockey: Robby Albarado




No. 2: California Chrome (Morning-line odds: 3-to-5)

Trainer: Art Sherman

Jockey: Victor Espinoza




No. 3: Matterhorn (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Joe Bravo




No. 4: Commanding Curve (Morning-line odds: 15-to-1)

Trainer: Dallas Stewart

Jockey: Shaun Bridgmohan





No. 5: Ride On Curlin (Morning-line odds: 10-to-1)

Trainer: William Gowan.

Jockey: John Velazquez




No. 6: Matuszak (Morning-line odds: 30-to-1)

Trainer: Bill Mott

Jockey: Mike Smith




No. 7: Samraat (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)

Trainer: Rick Violette, Jr.

Jockey: Jose Ortiz


No. 8: Commissioner (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: Javier Castellano




No. 9: Wicked Strong (Morning-line odds: 6-to-1)

Trainer: Jimmy Jerkens

Jockey: Rajiv Maragh



No. 10: General a Rod (Morning-line odds: 20-to-1)

Trainer: Michael Maker

Jockey: Rosie Napravnik




No. 11: Tonalist (Morning-line odds: 8-to-1)

Trainer: Christophe Clement

Jockey: Joel Rosario




Belmont Stakes Indicators



No Triple Crown winner has defeated more than seven rivals in the final jewel. Both Citation in 1948 and Seattle Slew in 1977 accomplished the feat. 10 challengers are set to face California Chrome.

Historically every Triple Crown winner has had a win over the course prior to the Belmont.


There has not been one horse from the West Coast to ever win the Triple Crown.



Historically the most common occurrences for Belmont winner has been. Over 70% have been Kentucky Breds and most have had Beyer Speed figures of 106 or higher. ( Cal Chrome has the highest at 105)




Prime Power Figures: Speed last race Class Ratings


Cal Chrome 161 Tonalist 107 Cal Chrome 122

Social Inclusion 151 Cal Chrome 105 Ride on Curlin 120

Samraat 151 Ride On Curlin 103 Social Inclusion 119




On Saturday California Chrome will attempt to become the first triple crown winner since 1978 when Affirmed beat Alydar for a 3rd straight time. While Chrome has the best overall numbers in the race there are several factors playing against him here today. As seen in out Belmont Stakes indicators should Chrome win it would be monumental since no West Horse based horse has ever won a triple crown and EVERY Crown winner has at a win over the track. So Chrome winning would be even more impressive than many of the others. We also consider that in todays age in racing there are more entrants than in years past and many fresh horses that trains specifically for this race.


Considering the all important pace of the race, California Chrome will almost certainly look to break at or near the lead, which tactically could hurt him, considering Tonalist, the Peter Pan winner will be right out there gunning it early as he was hard to hold back going straight for the lead in his Peter Pan Stakes win. While its tough to predict exactly who will fall far behind and which grinders will find lanes to move through, we can see Chrome right at or near the lead coming to the top of the long Belmont stretch. His main competition assuming Tonalist is still there will be Wicked Strong who is a grinder and who will be stalking the pace most of the way. Wicked Strong has a win over this track and was hindered by stumbling in the derby. He has some solid works here and did finish strong in the derby. He is bred to run all day. Others expected to be making a late run will me Medal Count who was destroyed in the Derby by Danza wrecking any chance he had, and which may have cost him a 2nd or 3rd place finish as he wound up just 7 lengths out. His Sire Dynaformer is one of the foremost Distance sires in North America. Commissioner will also be coming late and is another grinder with a fighting chance at a piece and his sire A.P. Indy was a Belmont Stakes winner and on his mares side is Touch Gold who ruined Silver Charms bid at a triple Crown.




The Finish. As the contenders get to the wire, make no mistakes about it. It would be fantastic to see Chrome become a monumental triple crown winner, and its worth it if you are there to buy a win ticket as a souvenir. However, he is 3-5 and has around a 25% chance to win. For an actual selection we must look at an overlay and there are several in here that could garner a nice price. Wicked Strong has the best chance to win and could pass Cal Chrome and Tonalist in the stretch. Medal Count runs a big race here and is right there with a hard charging Commissioner as the grinders have the best chance in this race. Deep closers usually run out of game before making their big run. So below is how we will play this one.


9. Wicked Strong BOXED in exactas and Triples with #2 Cal Chrome, #11 Tonalist, #1 Medal Count and #8 Commissioner