This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER MI/MSU.

As primarily a situational capper, this one ticks all the boxes for me to be a much more defensive battle than what the oddsmakers are leading us to believe. The bottom line here is that I just don't see MSU scoring a lot here.

That said, I also can't lay this large spread on the public road favorite either.

Situationally though as I mentioned, it does set up well to be a much lower-scoring game than what this O/U line is suggesting.

Michigan is 7-0 SU and it has a bye week after this. The only game it really has to worry about is Ohio State in the final week, but that games at home. It's hard to imagine the Wolverines looking past the Spartans, but I do think they'll take the foot off the gas and rest starters in the second half.

Again, I have no faith that the Spartans will actually be able to score here, even in garbage time.

Michigan has seen the total go OVER in three straight, but note that the Wolverines have in fact seen the total go UNDER in eight of their last 12 after playing to three or more straight OVERs in a row.

However you cut it, I say this is a few too many points now finally this week.

Michigan State is off four straight losses, and the last two outings have flown OVER the number.

But now here at home facing Michigan, I say everything points to this total staying UNDER the number once it's all said and done.

Good luck, NP