10* AFC EAST TOTAL OF MONTH (28-19 RUN!)
(NFL) Buffalo vs. New England,
Total: 40.00 | -108.00 Over
Result: Win
This is a 10* AFC EAST TOM on the OVER Bills/Pats.

These teams have been involved in several lower-scoring games of late, but I'm expecting those trends to end this afternoon.

Buffalo is 4-2 after a 14-9 win over the Giants last week. The Bills have now seen the total go UNDER in two straight.

New England is 1-5 after its 21-17 loss at the Raiders. The week before that it lost 34-0 at home to the Saints, and the week before that it fell 38-3 at Dallas. The Patriots have now seen the total go UNDER in five straight games, which is significant to note here as New England has in fact seen the total go OVER the number in eight of its last 11 after playing to five or more straight UNDERS in a row.

The Pats are giving up 25 PPG, and I don't see the Bills taking it easy on them. At the same time, clearly Belichick has to open up the playbook here on offense moving forward for NE.

I say that the overall situation that each club finds itself in, combined with the above strong O/U stat, and the fact that this total is low due to the fact that these teams have played to so many UNDERS of late, has finally driven this total a few points lower than it normally would/should be.

This total is low, the play is the OVER.

Good luck, NP