This is a 10* BIG TEN TOY on the UNDER Michigan State/NW.

These teams have been playing to several higher-scoring games of late, but all signs finally point to more of a defensive affair for sure in my opinion.

Michigan State is 9-5 and Northwestern is 10-3.

The Spartans have won five straight SU/ATS, and they've seen the total go OVER in six straight. Despite their 92-61 home win over PSU (note that they're 0-1 SU in true road games this season), a contest that did go OVER the number, they've still seen the ttoal go UNDER the number in eight of their last 12 after playing to five or more straight OVERS in a row.

Northwestern is off the 96-66 loss at Illinois as a 5.5-point underdog. It had seen the total go UNDER in three straight before that setback. Now back at home, I'm anticipating that the Wildcats will return to form defensively.

Michigan State will double down defensively here after losing this game 70-63 as a six-point favorite last season.

When you add up all of these factors, I say this O/U line is now much too high in this one.

The play is indeed on the UNDER.

Good luck, NP