This is a 10* ACC GOW on UNC.

UNC is 3-4 and running out of time to punch a ticket to the Bowl season. It's 0-6-1 ATS, but now I think the value has finally swung in favor of the Tar Heels.

UNC is off four straight losses, most recently a tight 41-34 setback here at home to Georgia Tech. The Tar Heels' bye could not have come at a better time as they look to regroup and try to earn three more wins.

They'll have a few opportunities to do that as well over their remaining five games, and this one here in UVA is one of them.

Virginia is 4-3 after back-to-back losses, falling 24-20 here to Louisville, then 48-31 at Clemson last weekend. UVA beat UNC 31-27 as a 24-point road dog last year, so the Tar Heels also play with a sense of revenge.

With a spread like this, clearly the oddsmakers believe these teams are evenly matched. And they are. But with the majority of the public on the home side here, I'm going contrarian and expecting the Tar Heels to, at the very least, find a way to cover with the points.

The play is UNC.

Good luck, NP