1* Free Play OVER Rays/Yankees.

Casual bettors will look at the names of the starting pitchers and at their respective season to date records and automatically assume we'll be in for a classic pitchers duel in this one, but if you dig a little deeper and look at "recent form," the numbers and trends say otherwise; suffice it to say, when the smoke clears at the end of the night, I look for this total to sneak above the posted number. Chris Archer is 9-5 with a 2.31 ERA, but comes in off a dud in which he gave up five earned runs off five hits over six innings in a setback to the Red Sox on Sunday. Masahiro Tanaka (4-3, 3.88 ERA) was shelled for six runs off seven hits over five innings vs. the Astros on Saturday, it was the hard-throwing right-handers second consecutive poor start (note, Tanaka actually became just the second Yankees pitcher in 100 years to give up three-or-more home runs and six-or-more runs in back-to-back starts). Recent performance is an important factor when handicapping MLB games obviously and with each starter struggling with control, there's no question that the OVER is worthy of a second look in this match-up.

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