PREMIUM
AAA's *50 STAR* Wk. 17 5-GM REPORT (245-203 +$18,990 w/ ALL 10* NFL!)
(NFL) Pittsburgh vs. Cleveland,
Point Spread: 11.00 | -127.00 Cleveland (Home)
Result: Loss
Point Spread: 11.00 | -127.00 Cleveland (Home)
Result: Loss
This is a 10* play on the Cleveland Browns.
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Pressure: The Steelers choked last weekend in falling to lowly Baltimore and even if they win this game, they may still not make the playoffs now, as they'll need the Jets to lose in Buffalo today as well.
- Relish The Spoiler Role: While the Browns have nothing to play for today and a loss would actually help them as far as the draft is concerned, we still think Cleveland's backups come to play today; note that even though Big Ben torched the Browns through the air earlier in the year, Cleveland's run defense was stout in holding DeAngelo Williams to 54 yards on 17 carries. Cleveland's own run game has actually been impressive down the stretch as well, as Isaiah Crowell has 56 carries and 318 yards in that span (may come as a surprise to learn that Cleveland is the 19th ranked run team in the NFL and 15th in YPC).
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs do indeed point to a Steelers letdown here, as note that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a divisional contest, while Cleveland is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss vs. a divisional opponent.
The bottom line: A mountain of pressure and off-field distractions for the visitors leaves the back door open just enough for the home team to sneak through; play on CLEVELAND.
AAA Sports
While we are primarily a situationally based handicapping service, we don't prescribe to any one single methodology, but instead feel that being flexible with ones approach is the best way to secure profits over the longterm. Sometimes we keep it simple, while other times we'll take into account a bunch of different factors, like motivation, scheduling and significant injuries. The actual contestants on the field of play rarely enter into our equation when making selections, unless it's a Top 3 player like a LeBron James or Aaron Rodgers etc. One set of criteria which we almost always use when making our decisions, are Against The Spread (ATS) statistics. Sometimes these stats can be overrated and other times they help foreshadow the outcome of a contest.
This particular play is based on a few different factors:
- Pressure: The Steelers choked last weekend in falling to lowly Baltimore and even if they win this game, they may still not make the playoffs now, as they'll need the Jets to lose in Buffalo today as well.
- Relish The Spoiler Role: While the Browns have nothing to play for today and a loss would actually help them as far as the draft is concerned, we still think Cleveland's backups come to play today; note that even though Big Ben torched the Browns through the air earlier in the year, Cleveland's run defense was stout in holding DeAngelo Williams to 54 yards on 17 carries. Cleveland's own run game has actually been impressive down the stretch as well, as Isaiah Crowell has 56 carries and 318 yards in that span (may come as a surprise to learn that Cleveland is the 19th ranked run team in the NFL and 15th in YPC).
- Strong and relevant ATS statistics: All signs do indeed point to a Steelers letdown here, as note that Pittsburgh is just 1-2 ATS vs. teams with losing records this season and just 6-8 ATS in its last 14 off a divisional contest, while Cleveland is 9-7 ATS in its last 16 in revenging a loss vs. a divisional opponent.
The bottom line: A mountain of pressure and off-field distractions for the visitors leaves the back door open just enough for the home team to sneak through; play on CLEVELAND.
AAA Sports
