I think the posted total is set way too high for this Thursday Night Football clash between the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs at Mile High.

The usually so high-scoring Chiefs have averaged only 21.5 ppg during an 0-2 SU and ATS slide. MVP quarterback Patrick Mahomes has completed just 50 percent of his passes during that stretch and is visibly bothered by a lingering ankle injury. To be fair, he is not getting much help from a banged-up offensive line and the Chiefs ground game is virtually non-existent.

As for the Broncos, they're trending in the opposite direction, and almost solely because of a defense that has been excellent in back-to-back wins. Note that they recorded seven sacks with three interceptions in last week's 16-0 shutout triumph over Tennessee. The Broncos do not bring much to the table offensively though, and when they do move the ball it will mainly be on the ground which will take time off the clock.

The under is 13-2 over the last three seasons in Denver games with a total between 42.5 and 49 points and 11-3 L14 when facing a division rival.

10* play on UNDER.