The Houston Texans have won three of their last four following a 20-17 win over Indianapolis last week. The lone loss during that four-game stretch was of the blowout variety at Baltimore, and I think they'll find it hard to keep it close here when hosting another of the true elite teams in the NFL Sunday afternoon.

The New England Patriots have just one loss on the season (to Baltimore) and they're 7-4 ATS, despite often asked to cover inflated numbers. They came up just short of covering the point spread in a 13-9 win over Dallas last week but are 5-1 ATS in their last 6 games after scoring less than 15 points in their previous game and 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games in December.

The Texans on the other hand are 2-9-1 ATS in their last 12 games in December and 1-5 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.

The Pats have a chance to wrap up a playoff spot with a win here, and you better believe Bill Belichick would prefer to clinch it ASAP.

Additionally, I like the trends supporting a relatively low-scoring game:

Under is 10-2 in Patriots last 12 games in December. Under is 25-10 in Patriots last 35 road games. Under is 8-1 in Texans last 9 home games. Under is 8-3 in Texans last 11 games in December.

8* play on UNDER.