The New England Patriots are back in contention for a wild card after winning four of their last five games. Last week they put a 45-0 beating on the Chargers in Inglewood and wisely decided to stay on the West Coast for this Thursday night contest against the LA Rams.

Still, playing on the road on a short week is never easy, and this will be a much tougher matchup against a Rams side that will be looking to avenge a 13-3 loss to the Pats in Super Bowl LIII. The Pats are not the dominant force they used to be, and I sense a possible letdown game after last week's rout.

Additionally, note that while the Patriots defense has stepped up its game in recent weeks, they're still mediocre at best on offense while the Rams rank top three in the NFL for both total offense and total defense.

Rams are 6-2-1 ATS in their last 9 games as a home favorite. Patriots are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 games following a straight up win.

In addition to the Rams winning and covering the spread, I also like the under.

Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall. Under is 4-1 in Patriots last 5 games as an underdog. Under is 7-2 in Rams last 9 games overall. Under is 5-0 in Rams last 5 games as a home favorite.

8* play on UNDER.