The Chiefs did not cover the double-digit spread against the Browns in their Divisional Round matchup, but I think they'll win and cover a much smaller number here against the Bills.

As of this writing, Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes is in concussion protocol, but I fully expect him to be activated. "(Mahomes) took all the snaps and he feels good, so we're just going to follow this protocol as close as we possibly can," Chiefs coach Andy Reid told reporters Wednesday.

Looking at stats, it looks like the Bills can go toe to toe with KC offensively, but I hold the Chiefs as the more complete team. Also, it feels like they've been cruising along most of the season why pure stats do not tell the whole story about their performance.

KC held nine opponents to 20 or fewer points, and even though Bills' QB Josh Allen has had a spectacular season, there is a risk of the pressure getting to the inexperienced signal-caller in this one.

These teams met in Buffalo earlier in the season, and Kansas City won 26-17. Take KC. (If you can buy down to -2.5, do it. This pick will be graded as -3).

10* play on Kansas City.