The Golden State Warriors swept New Orleans in the first round, but all of those games were relatively close. The Public is in love with the first place warriors, despite the fact that they've covered just once in their last eight games. The Grizzlies tough on the road, and one of the best defensive teams in the league.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Previous History - The Grizzlies have won six of the last 10 meetings in this series outright, and they covered the spread in seven of those 10 games. Going back further, they've covered the spread in six of their last seven visits to Oracle Arena.

2. Line Value - The Grizzlies are a double-digit underdog here, even though they haven't been spotted more than eight points in any of the previous 10 meetings between these two teams. It's quite clear that this inflated line is a result of public money backing the favorite, despite the Warriors poor ATS record in recent games.

3. X-Factor - The Warriors have failed to cover in each of their last five home games.

Selection: This is a play on the Memphis Grizzlies (8*)