The Miami Marlins and the San Francisco Giants have split the first two of a four-game set at San Francisco. They'll take AT&T Park for Game 3 in the series tonight, and I think the visitors are coming in undervalued in this spot.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Giants will hand the ball to Madison Bumgarner (3-1, 3.03 ERA) who is coming off seven scoreless innings against the Padres. He's not fared quite as well in previous meetings with the Fish though, going 1-2 with a 4.34 ERA in five starts. He'll be put to the test once again here as the Marlins have the sixth best batting average in baseball on the season (.271). Miami will counter with David Phelps (1-0, 3.24 ERA) who's been solid in virtually all of his six starts on the season. He's allowed more than two runs only once, in a home-game against the Rays. He's compiled a 1.50 ERA over three road-starts and will be poised to make his first start against the reigning World Series champions.

2. Situational - The Giants have lost four of Mad Bum's five starts against the Fish who are coming into this game winning all of their last four against a left-handed starter. Furthermore we can note that the Giants are just 2-6 in Bumgarner's last eight home starts versus a team with a losing record.

3. X-Factor - Dee Gordon was forced to sit Friday because of a sore right hamstring suffered in the series opener. He and his .437 batting average will be expected to be back tonight, further improving on an already dangerous Marlins line-up.

Selection: This is a play on the Miami Marlins +1.5 (8*)