The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 5-2 in the opener of a three game set at Camden Yards Monday night. They're currently sitting last in the AL East, but can leapfrog at least Toronto and possibly Boston with a win here and I like the price we get on the home-team in this match-up.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Orioles will hand the ball to Chris Tillman (2-4, 6.25 ERA) who has been lit up by the Jays over two meetings on the year. He's not had the best of starts to the season but impressed in his last home-start allowing just two runs on three hits with seven strikeouts over seven innings against the Rays, and I think things are about to brighten up for Tillman who was 13-6 with a respectable 3.34 ERA over 34 starts last year. The Blue Jays will counter with Mark Buehrle who's coming off his best performance on the year in a 5-1 win against the Yankees, but he had been torched for 13 runs on 24 hits over 10 innings in two road starts prior. He's defeated the Orioles twice this year, but mostly due to the 25 runs Toronto amassed in the two victories.

2. Road Woes - The Blue Jays are just 2-10 in their last 12 road games vs. a team with a home winning % of greater than .600 and 2-5 in the last seven meetings in Baltimore.

3. X-Factor - Manny Machado, Chris Davis and Adam Jones all hit a homer Monday and Mark Buehrle has given up six homers in six starts so far on the year.

Selection: This is a play on the Baltimore Orioles (10*)