The St. Louis Cardinals have struggled at the plate of late and have scored just 11 runs over their last four games while winning just one. The New York Mets on the other hand are off three consecutive wins, a 2-1 victory in the opener of a this four-game set at Citi Field last night included. I like the home-team to pile on the visitors misery with an upset tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Mets will hand the ball to Jonathon Niese (3-3, 2.49 ERA) as he's coming off one of his worst outings on the year when he surrendered six runs (four earned) on six hits over 6 1/3 innings at Wrigley Field his last start. He's been nearly flawless at home though, compiling a 1.35 ERA over three starts while going 2-1 and he owns a 4-2 record and 2.27 ERA in seven overall career starts versus the Cardinals who will counter with Michael Wacha (5-0, 2.06 ERA). While he's 2-1 with a 2.81 ERA in three career starts against the Mets, he may not be able to count on much run-support here from a Cardinals offense that has been held to fewer than four runs in six of their last eight games.

2. Situational - The Cardinals have lost each of Wacha's last six starts as a road favorite of -110 to -150 and they've won just one of the last five meetings at Citi Field.

3. X-Factor - Matt Holliday has been of the Cardinals few productive hitters of late and reached base in each of his first 36 games, but he's just 3-for-15 with one walk and three strikeouts lifetime against Niese

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets +1.5 (8*)