The Mets are only a half game out of first place in the AL East, and they are looking to avoid a sweep at home in the series finale versus San Francisco tonight. New York has been one of the better home teams in baseball with a 21-10 record at Citi Field, and I like the Mets as a home dog in this spot.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Tim Lincecum will get the nod for the Giants, and he hasn't been missing many bats lately. Lincecum (6-3, 3.29 ERA) gave up four runs on five hits and a pair of walks in his last start. He's given up at least four runs in each of his last three starts, and he owns an ERA of 5.06 in five starts on the road. The Mets counter with Jonathon Niese, who has been decent at home.

2. Hunter Pence - He's heading back to the DL with a sore wrist after sitting out the last six games. His bat will surely be missed.

3. X-Factor - The Mets bullpen ranks second in the National League with an ERA of 2.71, while the Giants relievers rank in the middle of the pack with a 3.41 ERA.

Selection: This is a play on the New York Mets +1.5 (8*)