The Cubs have won two of three in this home series versus Cincinnati, and they play the series finale in a nationally televised game tonight. The Reds have really been struggling, and it won't get any easier tonight as Chicago sends it's ace to the mound.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Jon Lester will get the nod for the Cubs, and he's been stellar at Wrigley in his first season as a Cub. Lester (4-5, 4.25 ERA) allowed a pair of runs on seven hits while racking up 10 Ks in a loss versus Washington in his last home start. The Reds will counter with Anthony DeSclafani, who hasn't been missing many bats lately.

2. Brandon Phillips - The Reds second baseman has missed the last three games, and manager Bryan Price doesn't expect him back tonight. "Until I see him make more explosive movements, I don't think he'll start," said Price.

3. X-Factor - Chicago has won nine of it's last 11 versus the Reds dating back to last season.

Selection: This is a play on the Chicago Cubs (8*)