The Red Sox have blown leads in both the first two games of this home series versus Toronto, and they look to avoid the sweep here at Fenway this afternoon. I think Toronto's luck will run out today up against a hot young left-hander.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Eduardo Rodriguez will be on the mound for Boston, and the rookie has looked great so far. Rodriguez (2-0, 0.44 ERA) tossed six scoreless frames in a no decision at Baltimore in his last start. The southpaw has only given up one run on eight hits while striking out 21 in his first three career starts. The Jays counter with Marco Estrada, who allowed more home runs than any other pitcher in the majors last season.

2. Home Cookin' - The Jays are just 13-18 on the road this season, and I don't like their chances of sweeping the Sox at Fenway with a below average pitcher on the mound.

3. X-Factor - The Blue Jays are 2-5 in Estrada's last 7 starts.

Selection: This is a play on the Boston Red Sox (10*)