The Washington Nationals defeated the Pittsburgh Pirates 9-3 last night and are coming into the series-finale Sunday looking to salvage a split of the four-game series. I think they're coming in undervalued in this contest and see value on the Nats on the run-line.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Nats hand the ball to Joe Ross (2-2, 2.70 ERA) who'll make his fifth career start in the major leagues. He's been solid enough in his previous four and held Milwaukee to two runs in seven innings of a 7-2 win his lone road-start so far. The Pirates will counter with Gerrit Cole (13-4, 2.31) who's 8-2 with a 2.25 ERA in his last 11 outings. He's allowed two runs or more in each of his last seven though and absorbed the 3-1 loss against the Royals his last start surrendering three runs (two earned) on five hits in seven innings.

2. Situational - The Nats are 5-2 in their last 7 games against a right-handed starter and have won eight of the last 10 meetings with the Pirates.

3. X-Factor - Ross has yet to give up a homer in the big leagues.

Selection: This is a play on the Washington Nationals +1.5 (8*)