The Houston Astros have emerged as a clear favorite to win the AL West, battling back to take a three game lead on the Angels at the top of the division. The Astros added some key pieces at the deadline, while the Angels are down a starter with C.J. Wilson out for the season. Houston is a heavy favorite in today's game against the Diamondbacks, and I think the price is just too high.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Robbie Ray will be on the mound for Arizona, and he's pitched extremely well all year long. Ray (3-4, 2.70 ERA) gave up just a pair of runs while fanning eight in seven frames in a win at Seattle in his last outing. He's a very impressive 3-2 with a 1.46 ERA in six starts on the road this year. The Astros counter with Collin McHugh, who's record is impressive, but he ERA of 5.22 at home is a big warning sign.

2. Paul Goldschmidt - The Arizona slugger has a commanding lead in the NL batting race, hitting .346 this season.

3. X-Factor - The D'Backs have won 11 of their last 15 visits to Houston outright.

Selection: This is a play on the Arizona Diamondbacks +1.5 (8*)