1* free play on the Tampa Rays...

The Toronto Blue Jays beat the Rays 5-3 on Opening Day, and the Jays are a "sexy" pick to repeat as AL East champs this season. Bettors love the Blue Jays offense, but I think there's more value betting against this team that has a pretty suspect pitching staff. The Rays are a small favorite at home today, despite a clear pitching mismatch in their favor. My money is on Tampa.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Veteran knuckleballer R.A. Dickey will be on the mound for the visiting Jays, and he was not successful at all on the road last year. The 41 year old won 11 games last year, and nine of those came at home. He was 2-8 with a 4.83 ERA in 16 starts on the road, and 1-4 with a 4.40 ERA in five starts versus Tampa. Drew Smyly was undefeated in his final eight starts last season, and he's been very sharp in Spring Training.

2. Home Cookin' - The Rays have won six of their last eight at Tropicana Field, and they've won seven of Smyly's last eight starts on astroturf.

3. X-Factor - Jose Bautista and Edwin Encarnacion are a combined 1-for-9 versus Smyly.

Selection: This is a play on the Tampa Rays (Free)