8* play on Denver Nuggets.

The Oklahoma City Thunder finished March on a high note winning all but one of their last 10 games of the month. They opened April with a 118-110 loss at Houston though and I think they're in for a tough match-up against the Nuggets at Denver tonight.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. The Backdoor Cover - No other team in the NBA has blown more fourth-quarter leads than Oklahoma City. With a spread as big as this a backdoor cover is always a possibility and the Nuggets will play hard in one of the last games home at Pepsi Center this season.

2. Situational - The Thunder have covered the spread in only three of 14 games when coming off a upset loss as a favorite this season and 14-23 ATS on the road.

3. X-Factor - Oklahoma City has won five straight in the series but the Nuggets kept it close in a 110-104 loss on Jan. 19 the most recent meeting in Denver.

Selection: This is a play on the Denver Nuggets (8*)