8* play on St. Louis Cardinals.

The St. Louis Cardinals are four games back of Chicago in the NL Central, and they've lost back-to-back home games in this series versus the Cubs. I like St. Louis to avoid a sweep with a win in Game 3 at Busch Stadium this afternoon.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - Carlos Martinez will get the nod for the home team, and he's 2-0 with a 3.46 ERA in his first two starts of 2016. The right-hander was 2-0 in five appearances versus the Cubs last season, and he was 4-2 with a 2.41 ERA in nine starts in day games in 2015. The Cubs counter with Kyle Hendricks, who allowed four runs on seven hits over six innings in a home loss to the Rockies in his last start.

2. Batter vs. Pitcher - The Cardinals haven't had much trouble figuring out Hendricks, batting .300 over a combined 70 at bats. Matt Carpenter is 6-for-10 with a home run and three RBIs lifetime versus the right-hander.

3. X-Factor - Hendricks owns a 4.91 ERA in two career starts at Busch Stadium.

Selection: This is a play on the St. Louis Cardinals (8*)