The Atlanta Braves are tied with the Minnesota Twins for the worst record in baseball this season. Runs have not come easy for the team, but the pitching match-up in Monday's series-opener against the San Diego Padres combined with a low number makes me believe we'll see enough runs to push this game over the total.

Here are my keys to the game:

1. Pitching - The Padres hand the ball to Christian Friedrich (2-1, 2.53), The left-hander was rewarded with the win his last start despite surrendering four runs (three earned) on nine hits and four walks in five innings against Seattle as he was provided with plenty of run support in the 14-6 victory. He has posted a 7.36 ERA in five career relief appearances against Atlanta which counters with Williams Perez (2-1, 3.86 ERA). Perez has split two career starts against the Padres while allowed five runs (four earned) on 11 hits over 13 1/3 frames. The 25 year old conceded four runs in 5 2/3 innings his last outing.

2. Previous Meetings - The over is 39-13-3 in the last 55 meetings in San Diego and 6-2 in the past eight overall.

3. X-Factor - The Padres' bullpen has a 4.94 ERA on the season and Atlanta's a 4.40 ERA, both among the worst marks in the majors.

Selection: This is a play on ATL@SD to go OVER the total 1st 5 innings (10*)