The set-up: The Marlins beat the Nats 4-3 last night, keeping their slim wild card chances alive. The New York Mets hold down the No. 1 wild card spot, one game ahead of the San Francisco Giants and St. Louis Cardinals, who are tied at 79-71. Monday's win gives Miami a 75-75 record, four games back of the Giants and Cards. Washington has all but secured the NL East crown and can't reasonably be expected to catch the Cubs for the NL's best overall record (Nats trail the Cubs by seven games with 12 games remaining).

The pitching matchup: Tanner Roark (15-8, 2.75 ERA) starts for Washington and Jose Fernandez (15-8, 2.99 ERA) will take the mound for Miami. Tanner Roark is on the cusp of a career year, as he looks to win his 16th game (he won 15 games in 2014). Fernandez is also looking for his 16th win and as most are aware, has been a dominating home pitcher. He's 11-2 with a 1.77 ERA in 15 home starts this season (team is 11-4) but that tells just part of the story. He's 28-2 with a 1.53 ERA at Marlins Park since breaking into the majors over 41 career starts (Marlins are 34-7)

The pick: The Nationals have lost three games in a row but have little reason to worry, as they are eight games ahead of the New York Mets in the NL East. Yes, Roark has had a terrific season but he's really struggled vs. Miami, going 3-6 with a 4.68 ERA in 10 career starts (team is 4-6). As for Fernandez, not only does he own that spectacular home record (see above), he's 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA in nine career starts vs. the Nats (Marlins are 7-2). Miami is an 8* play.