The set-up: Break up the Braves! Atlanta may still own the NL's worst record at but the team's 3-2 win in Miami last night was its seventh in a row with only red-hot Boston (nine straight wins) owning a longer current winning run. The Braves are now an impressive 19-12 since August 21, after taking the first two of this four-game series in Miami with the Marlins. Miami hasn't made the playoffs since 2003 and with the Marlins winning just 9 of their last 26 games, it's all over but the crying here in 2016 (the Marlins are five games out of the final wild card spot with eight games left and would have to pass THREE teams to earn that final playoff berth!).

The pitching matchup: Rookie Aaron Blair (1-6, 7.71 ERA) gets a turn for Atlanta, while the Marlins counter with veteran Wei-Yin Chen (5-4, 5.04 ERA). Blair was acquired by the Braves in December in the deal with Arizona Diamonbacks and made his major league debut on April 24. However, after making 11 starts and going 0-5 with a 7.99 ERA, he was sent back down to Triple-A. Blair didn't pitch well there, either, owning a 5.98 ERA but the Braves gave him another chance. Blair finally earned his first major league victory, allowing just two runs in six innings on September 19. The Marlins signed Chen to a five-year, $80 million contract, expecting him to be the team's No. 2 starter, behind Jose Fernandez. However, Chen missed two months due to an elbow injury and owns just five wins with nine days left in the regular season.

The pick: Atlanta is hot and the Marlins' playoff hopes are all but over but...it's impossible to back Blair with his 7.71 ERA, 1.68 WHIP and .303 opponents BA over 13 starts (Braves are 3-10). Meanwhile, I realize Chen hasn't delivered for Miami in 2016 but his numbers were really good the past two years with the Baltimore Orioles, going 16-6 with a 3.54 ERA in 2014 and 11-8 with a 3.34 ERA in 2015. No pressure here and I expect Chen to come through. Miami is an 8* play.