The set-up: The Chicago Cubs easily clinched the NL Central (lead by a whopping 17 games) and have also secured MLB's best overall record, as they conclude a three-game series with the St. Louis Cardinals Sunday night at Wrigley Field. Meanwhile, the 81-73 Cardinals need to win the rubber match of this series, as they are a half game behind New York and San Francisco in a three-team race for two NL wild card spots. The Cardinals pounded out 14 hits in Saturday's 10-4 victory, winning for the fifth time in seven contests. After tonight's game, the Cards conclude the season with seven home games, including four against the last-place 64-90 Cincinnati Reds.

The pitching matchup: Carlos Martinez (15-8, 3.16 ERA) gets the nod for the Cards, opposed by the Cubs' Jon Lester (18-4, 2.36 ERA). Martinez has produced a second straight surprising year for the Cards (was 14-7, 3.01 in 2015) and enters having won five of his last six decisions. However, the lone loss during that stretch was against the Cubs on 9/14. Martinez is 3-2 with a 4.85 ERA in 18 games (eight starts / Cards are 5-3) all-time against Chicago, including a 1-2 mark (5.25 ERA) in four starts this year (Cards are 1-3). Lester's 18 wins are tied with teammate Jake Arrieta and the Nats' Max Scherzer for the most in the NL and his 2.36 ERA ranks second among all MLB starters, behind only teammate Kyle Hendricks' 2.06.

The pick: The good news for the Cards is that while the Cubs are a dominating 66-24 at home in 2016, the Cards have won six of nine at Wrigley this year. Also, Martinez has been great on the road in 2016, going 9-1 with a 2.42 ERA in 14 starts away from St. Louis (Cards are 10-4). That said, Lester hasn't lost since July 3 and he has posted quality starts in 11 of his 12 outings since the All-Star break. He's 9-0 with a 1.46 ERA over his 12 post-break starts (Cubs are 11-1). If that's not enough, he owns a nine-game winning streak at Wrigley this season, as well as a 1.86 home ERA in 14 starts in 2016 (Cubs are 12-2). Chicago is an 8* play.