The set-up: The Kansas City Royals came into the 2016 season off back-to-back World Series appearances, including a win last season over the Mets. However, the 79-77 Royals will be watching the 2016 postseason on TV this year. As for the Minnesota Twins, they were a surprise in 2015, finishing above .500 at 83-79 and in second place in the AL Central. But instead of taking a step forward, the Twins sit 56-100, leaving them with MLB's worst overall record, as well as its worst moneyline mark at minus-$3328.

The pitching matchup: Jose Berrios (2-7, 8.88 ERA) takes the mound for Minnesota and Ian Kennedy (11-10, 3.64 ERA) goes for Kansas City. Berrios has endured a rocky rookie season with just one quality start among the 12 he's made. There is not just that ‘ugly' 8.88 ERA to report but also his 1.99 WHIP and .324 BAA! Berrios makes his 13th start here, after Minnesota has gone 2-10 (minus-$673) in his first 12. Kennedy comes off a 4-3 loss at Cleveland last Wednesday, his first road defeat since July 1. Kennedy had an abysmal 0-3 record (4.96 ERA) in July but his 2.36 ERA since July 30 leads the AL.

The pick: Berrios has proven inconclusively to be unready for primetime. Meanwhile, Kennedy has allowed just 18 ERs in 11 starts since his last defeat, 6-2 at home against the LA Angels back on July 25 (again, that's a 2.36 ERA). Also note that Kennedy is 4-1 with 3.34 ERA in six career starts (teams are 5-1) against the Twins. Kansas City is an 8* play.