The set-up: Pitching has dominated the first two games of the ALCS, with Cleveland taking a 2-0 lead by winning 2-0 in Game 1 and then 2-1 in Game 2. "It's been the same story, good pitching on both sides," Blue Jays manager John Gibbons said on Sunday before his team worked out. "A little offense on both sides. They just got the two home runs, really. And then (Francisco) Lindor has had two big hits in both games. A lot of similarities, but they've been able to plate the runs. Not many of them, but more than we have." The series shifts to Toronto for the next three games and it seems likely the Blue Jays will need to win at least two to have much of a chance to advance to their first World Series since they won back-to-back tiles in 1992 and 1993.

The pitching matchup: Trevor Bauer (0-0, 5.79 ERA) takes the mound for Cleveland and Marcus Stroman (0-0, 3.00 ERA) for Toronto. Bauer was scheduled to start Game 2 before he suffered a cut on the little finger of his right hand while working on his drone. Josh Tomlin took his place and picked up the win Saturday, continuing the outstanding pitching by the Cleveland staff (starters and relief) this postseason. Bauer faced Toronto twice this season, going 1-0 with a 1.38 ERA (Indians were 2-0). His win came when he pitched five innings in relief July 1 in the 19-inning, 2-1 victory at Rogers Centre that extended Cleveland's winning streak to a club-record 14 games. He is 1-1 with a 6.27 ERA in four career games (three starts / Cleveland is 2-1 in his three starts with Bauer owning an 8.57 ERA) against Toronto and is 1-1 with a 7.11 ERA in two career games at Rogers Centre. Stroman will be making his second postseason start this year and the fifth of his career. He allowed four hits and two runs over six innings in a no-decision against the Baltimore Orioles in the wild-card game, a Toronto win in extra-innings. He is 1-0 with a 3.91 in his first four career postseason starts (Toronto is 3-1).

The pick: Cleveland is 5-0 this postseason led by a pitching staff that owns a 1.60 ERA and 0.96 WHIP. However, the outlier is Trevor Bauer, who in his one postseason start (Game 1 vs. Boston) allowed five hits (including two HRs) and three runs in 4 2/3 innings (5.79 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and .316 BA against). Throw in his 8.57 ERA in three career starts against Toronto (as well as his 7.11 ERA in two career starts at Rogers Centre) and the Blue Jays seem to have an excellent chance to break out of their slump which has seen them bat .159 as a team against Cleveland so far, accounting for just 10 hits, which includes only two extra-base hits (both doubles). The Jays have won three of the four postseason starts made by Stroman these last two years and in this ‘must-win" game, I'll back the Jays. Toronto is an 8* play.