Rogers' 10* Thurs Night Game of the MONTH >> Going For 7th Straight Primetime Winner!
(NFL) Atlanta vs. Tampa Bay,
Point Spread: -3.50 | -110.00 Atlanta (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: Atlanta opened the 2015 season 5-0 but finished at 8-8. The team had gone just 18-30 since signing QB Matt Ryan to a huge contract and many were wondering if the Falcons should even be considered a viable playoff contender as the 2016 season opened. So what happens in Week 1? The Bucs visit Atlanta and beat the Falcons 31-24. However, Atlanta bounced back to win four straight games but feelings of déjà vu were very real, after Atlanta lost consecutive close games to Seattle (26-24) and 33-30 to San Diego in OT. Did Atlanta stop the bleeding with last Sunday's exciting 33-32 win over Green Bay? We'll find out soon, as the Falcons play a Thursday night at Tampa Bay, looking to avenge their Week 1 home loss to the Bucs against a team which comes in just 3-4 on the season and one which owns an awful home record, going 0-3 SU & ATS at home this season, while entering this game having lost 16 of its last 19 home games going back to the start of the 2014 season!

Atlanta: Matt Ryan has silenced his critics, leading the NFL's No. 1 ranked offense in both total yards (425.2 YPG) and scoring (32.8 PPG). He's completing 69.2% for 2,636 yards with 19 TDs, 4 INTs and a QB rating of 115.8. WR Julio Jones (43 catches / 20.0 YPC) is a star and is complemented nicely by Sanu, who has 32 catches. RB Freeman has also played well, rushing for 543 yards (4.7 YPC / 3 TDs), while adding 26 receptions and another two TDs. The Atlanta offense has to play well, as its defense is allowing 28.9 PPG to rank 29th of 32 teams.

Tampa Bay: Jameis Winston (58.7% for 1,776 yards with a 14-9 ratio) threw four TD passes in that Week 1 win in Atlanta but unlike in that game, the team's top-two RBs, Doug Martin and Charles Sims, are now both injured. Jacquizz Rodgers has filled in admirably for Doug Martin (hamstring) but after 101 and 154-yard efforts, he sustained a sprained foot versus the Raiders (gained 69 yards) and is questionable for this game. Also of note since that Week 1 win, the team's No. 2 WR Vincent Jackson has been placed on IR and TE Austin Seferian-Jenkins, who caught a 30-yard TD against the Falcons, has since been arrested on a DUI charge and waived.

The pick: Ryan leads the NFL in both passing yards (2,636) and TD passes (19) plus has thrown for 1,000 yards and five TDs in his last three encounters with Tampa Bay (including 334 yards with two TDs and 0 INTs in Week 1). He will face a Buccaneers pass defense that ranks 23rd in the league (274.7 YPG), while intercepting only four of 251 pass attempts (has allowed 14 TD passes). Atlanta's defense is weak but Winston is not the QB that Ryan is plus he enters with a much weaker offensive supporting cast, partly due to injuries. Since winning in Week 1 at Atlanta, the Buccaneers have gone 2-4 with one of those victories occurring against the sad-sack 1-6 San Francisco 49ers. Then there's the bottom line, Atlanta is the better team playing with revenge against a team which has lost 16 of its last 19 home games. Atlanta is a 10* play.