PREMIUM
Rogers' NFL Total MASSACRE >> RED HOT!
(NFL) Kansas City vs. Atlanta,
Total: 50.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
Total: 50.00 | -110.00 Over
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 8-3 KC Chiefs sit one game back of the 9-2 Raiders in the AFC West while Atlanta's 7-4 record in the NFC South is good enough to give the Falcons a one-game lead over the Tampa Bay Bucs. The banged up Chiefs had to play 75 minutes last Sunday night in Denver but did come away with a 30-27 OT win, when the game-winning FG caromed in off the left upright on the game's final play. Meanwhile, the Falcons beat the Cardinals 38-17 in Atlanta last Sunday in impressive fashion.
Kansas City: The Chiefs' offense has struggled most of the season thanks in large part to a rash of injuries to its RBs and now its WRs. The Chiefs had scored just one offensive TD over their previous three games heading into last Sunday's game in Denver, averaging only 18.7 PPG in that span. The team had one offensive TD, 10 FGs and one "pick six" over that three-game span but managed 30 points against Denver, despite gaining only 273 yards (an 86-yard KO return TD sure helped). The Chiefs are ranked No. 27 in total yards (328.3 per) and have scored just 20 TDs, averaging 22.9 PPG (16th). Kansas City only makes the top half of the league numbers in only two areas; interception percentage (only four in 402 attempts) and on fourth-down conversions (77.8 percent). The defense allows 381.9 YPG (28th) but with an NFL-leading 24 takeaways, is allowing 19.5 PPG, which ranks 8th.
Atlanta: The Falcons have been at or near the top of most offensive categories all season and currently checks in leading the NFL in scoring (32.5 PPG) on 411.5 YPG (3rd). Atlanta's offensive success has been built around QB Matt Ryan (303.1 YPG passing / 26 TDs / 6 INTs / 114.3 QB rating), WR Julio Jones (65 catches for an NFL-best 1,140 yards) and RB Devonte Freeman (998 offensive yards as a runner-receiver with 7 TDs, including 729 yards rushing). Ryan's had a terrific season and it's sure helped that the same five offensive linemen have started each game. However, defense is another issue, as the Falcons are allowing 27.5 PPG (29th).
The pick: The Chiefs are in a brutally tough spot here, off that dramatic OT win last Sunday night in Denver and a game with Oakland coming up next week. However, they enter having won six of seven and quite remarkably, 19 of 23 regular and postseason games dating to October 2015. The Falcons have under-preformed at home this year (3-2 SU & ATS) and I expect the Chiefs to get them into a much lower scoring game than the over/under number indicates. The Under is an 8* play.
Kansas City: The Chiefs' offense has struggled most of the season thanks in large part to a rash of injuries to its RBs and now its WRs. The Chiefs had scored just one offensive TD over their previous three games heading into last Sunday's game in Denver, averaging only 18.7 PPG in that span. The team had one offensive TD, 10 FGs and one "pick six" over that three-game span but managed 30 points against Denver, despite gaining only 273 yards (an 86-yard KO return TD sure helped). The Chiefs are ranked No. 27 in total yards (328.3 per) and have scored just 20 TDs, averaging 22.9 PPG (16th). Kansas City only makes the top half of the league numbers in only two areas; interception percentage (only four in 402 attempts) and on fourth-down conversions (77.8 percent). The defense allows 381.9 YPG (28th) but with an NFL-leading 24 takeaways, is allowing 19.5 PPG, which ranks 8th.
Atlanta: The Falcons have been at or near the top of most offensive categories all season and currently checks in leading the NFL in scoring (32.5 PPG) on 411.5 YPG (3rd). Atlanta's offensive success has been built around QB Matt Ryan (303.1 YPG passing / 26 TDs / 6 INTs / 114.3 QB rating), WR Julio Jones (65 catches for an NFL-best 1,140 yards) and RB Devonte Freeman (998 offensive yards as a runner-receiver with 7 TDs, including 729 yards rushing). Ryan's had a terrific season and it's sure helped that the same five offensive linemen have started each game. However, defense is another issue, as the Falcons are allowing 27.5 PPG (29th).
The pick: The Chiefs are in a brutally tough spot here, off that dramatic OT win last Sunday night in Denver and a game with Oakland coming up next week. However, they enter having won six of seven and quite remarkably, 19 of 23 regular and postseason games dating to October 2015. The Falcons have under-preformed at home this year (3-2 SU & ATS) and I expect the Chiefs to get them into a much lower scoring game than the over/under number indicates. The Under is an 8* play.
