Rogers' ALL EARLY SWEEPER PASS
(NFL) Detroit vs. NY Giants,
Point Spread: 4.50 | -110.00 Detroit (Away)
Result: Loss
The set-up: The 9-4 Lions are battling Seattle for the NFC's No. 2 seed and will take on the 9-4 NY Giants, who just beat Dallas and currently sit two games behind the Cowboys in the NFC but do own a series sweep over them in 2016. The Giants are currently owners of the NFC's No. 1 wild card spot.

Detroit: The Lions have won five in a row heading into this game but only one of the team's nine wins in 2016 has come by more than seven points (six wins have come by four or less points). QB Matthew Stafford has had a strong season, completing 66.7% for 3,447 yards with 22 TDs and just seven INTs (97.8 QB rating). He reportedly suffered torn ligaments and a dislocation of the middle finger of his throwing hand in the first quarter of the Detroit's game last Sunday against Chicago. He threw two interceptions, including a pick six, after having the finger taped and putting a glove on his hand. However, Stafford still led his club to its eighth fourth-quarter comeback victory (20-17), the most by any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970. The Lions rank a modest 17th in scoring (22.7) but have scored when needed, especially late in their games. The defense has improved nicely from last year, allowing 20.6 PPG (10th), after allowing 25.0 PPG in 2015.

NY Giants: The Giants kept their division title hopes alive by defeating the Cowboys 10-7 for the second time this season last Sunday night and enter this contest having won seven of their last eight games. QB Eli Manning (23-13 ratio / 87.8 QB rating has an excellent trio of WRs this season but he's still struggled at times. He has failed to surpass 200 passing yards in each of his last three games and tossed three interceptions in that stretch, causing the two-time Super Bowl MVP to cast a critical eye on his own performance. "I've got to play better," Manning said. "Got to find completions, got to protect the football better. That's what's got to happen in these types of games." In fairness, he's not helped by a running game ranked 31st (78.7 YPG), with leading rusher Rashad Jennings gaining only 459 yards on the season and being limited to just 64 yards in his last two contests. However, after giving up the most yards of any team last season (420.3 YPG), as well as 27.6 PPG, the Giants D is allowing about 70 YPG less in 2016 and just 18.8 PPG, to rank 7th.

The pick: The Lions have won eight of nine and the Giants seven of eight. Yes, the Lions are dome team playing in bad weather but Stafford's had the ‘magic touch' in 2016 and I won't buck the Lions when they are getting points. Detroit is a 10* play.