PREMIUM
Rogers' ALL EARLY SWEEPER PASS
(NFL) Tennessee vs. Kansas City,
Point Spread: 6.00 | -110.00 Tennessee (Away)
Result: Win
Point Spread: 6.00 | -110.00 Tennessee (Away)
Result: Win
The set-up: The 10-3 KC Chiefs moved into the control seat of the AFC West with their 21-13 victory last week over Oakland, as both teams are 10-3 but KC owns a 2-0 series sweep. It was very cold in KC for that Week 14 Thursday game and conditions are expected to similar Sunday afternoon (predictions call for temperatures in the low teens with the wind-chill factor falling into single digits), when the 7-6 Tennessee Titans come to Arrowhead Stadium. The Titans will arrive in Kansas City with their postseason chances still alive, as they share first place in the AFC South with the Houston Texans, after a 13-10 victory over Denver on Sunday in Nashville.
Tennessee: QB Marcus Mariota comes off his least productive performance of the 2016 season last Sunday against Denver. He threw for only 88 yards, completing just six of 20 passes (30.0%) and an average of 4.4 yards per attempt. That hardly squares with the guy who was named the AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November, with 11 TD passes, just two interceptions, a completion percentage of 66 percent and an average of 8.7 yards per attempt. Mariota's having an excellent second season, throwing for 3,086 yards with 25 TDs and eight INTs for a 99.1 QB rating. He's nicely complemented by a running game which ranks third in the NFL at 144.5 YPG (4.7 YPC), led by DeMarco Murray's 1,135 yards on 4.5 YPC with nine TDs. The Titans defense has been susceptible against the pass (274.9 YPG ranks 31st) but outstanding against the run, ranking third in allowing just 86.6 YPG.
Kansas City: The Chiefs looks like a middle-of-the-pack team on paper but they've come up with big plays on both sides of the ball when needed. The defense has forced a league-high 25 turnovers and is coming off a dominant effort in holding the Raiders to 244 total yards. WR Jeremy Maclin's return to the lineup last week provided some life to the passing game and TE Travis Kelce has topped 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games, the fourth tight end in NFL history to do so. Then there is rookie WR/KR Tyreek Hill, who ranks second among rookies with nine total TDs, six receiving, one rushing, one kick return, and one punt return. Alex Smith is routinely knocked as a QB but KC ended last year's regular season on a 10-0 run and added to a 10-3 record this year, that's 20-3 over the team's last 23 regular season games!
The pick: Kudos to KC but the Chiefs have been outgained by almost 100 YPG over their last six contests (5-1). Some wonder how KC is 10-3? Well, the Chiefs are plus-11 in TO ratio on the season and have scored seven TDs either through a defensive
score or special teams, while giving up none in return. However, Mariota does not turn the ball over much (he owns an 18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last nine games) and that Tennessee running game could be a huge factor in bad weather. Meanwhile, Smith lacks the ability to throw downfield and take advantage of Tennessee's poor pass defense. Note that for all its success lately, Kansas City is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take the points and make Tennessee an 8* play.
Tennessee: QB Marcus Mariota comes off his least productive performance of the 2016 season last Sunday against Denver. He threw for only 88 yards, completing just six of 20 passes (30.0%) and an average of 4.4 yards per attempt. That hardly squares with the guy who was named the AFC's Offensive Player of the Month in November, with 11 TD passes, just two interceptions, a completion percentage of 66 percent and an average of 8.7 yards per attempt. Mariota's having an excellent second season, throwing for 3,086 yards with 25 TDs and eight INTs for a 99.1 QB rating. He's nicely complemented by a running game which ranks third in the NFL at 144.5 YPG (4.7 YPC), led by DeMarco Murray's 1,135 yards on 4.5 YPC with nine TDs. The Titans defense has been susceptible against the pass (274.9 YPG ranks 31st) but outstanding against the run, ranking third in allowing just 86.6 YPG.
Kansas City: The Chiefs looks like a middle-of-the-pack team on paper but they've come up with big plays on both sides of the ball when needed. The defense has forced a league-high 25 turnovers and is coming off a dominant effort in holding the Raiders to 244 total yards. WR Jeremy Maclin's return to the lineup last week provided some life to the passing game and TE Travis Kelce has topped 100 receiving yards in four consecutive games, the fourth tight end in NFL history to do so. Then there is rookie WR/KR Tyreek Hill, who ranks second among rookies with nine total TDs, six receiving, one rushing, one kick return, and one punt return. Alex Smith is routinely knocked as a QB but KC ended last year's regular season on a 10-0 run and added to a 10-3 record this year, that's 20-3 over the team's last 23 regular season games!
The pick: Kudos to KC but the Chiefs have been outgained by almost 100 YPG over their last six contests (5-1). Some wonder how KC is 10-3? Well, the Chiefs are plus-11 in TO ratio on the season and have scored seven TDs either through a defensive
score or special teams, while giving up none in return. However, Mariota does not turn the ball over much (he owns an 18-to-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio during his last nine games) and that Tennessee running game could be a huge factor in bad weather. Meanwhile, Smith lacks the ability to throw downfield and take advantage of Tennessee's poor pass defense. Note that for all its success lately, Kansas City is just 2-7 ATS in its last nine home games. Take the points and make Tennessee an 8* play.
