Rogers' Sunday SHOWDOWN (HOU vs. CIN) >> SWEET 30-19-1 L50 NCAAB!
(NCAAB) Houston vs. Cincinnati,
Point Spread: -4.50 | -115.00 Cincinnati (Home)
Result: Loss
The set-up: It's the top-seeded Cincinnati Bearcats (29-4) facing the third-seeded Houston Cougars (26-6) in the American Athletic Conference Tournament final in Orlando. The Bearcats are currently ranked No. 8 in the AP poll and the Cougars are ranked 21st. The Bearcats have defeated SMU (61-51) and Memphis (70-60) in their first two games of this event, while the Cougars knocked off UCF 84-56, before riding Rob Gray's 33 points to a 77-74 win over Wichita State (league's No. 2 seed and the AP's 11th-ranked team) on Saturday. This marks Houston's first trip to the AAC title game but the Cougars know they can beat the Bearcats, as they did it as recently as Feb. 15, when Houston Cincinnati's snapped national-best snapped winning streak at 16 games in a 67-62 home victory.

Houston: The Cougars only had seven turnovers in Saturday's win and that proved to be the difference, along with 7-of-15 combined three-point shooting by Gray and Corey Davis Jr. The other three starters for Houston combined for only 13 points, although the 6-6 Nura Zanna (just 2.8 & 3.9 on the season) did register a team-high nine rebounds off the bench. Gray has reached the 30-point plateau in two of his last three games and is averaging 24.7 points over his last six outings. He leads four double digits scorers (18.6-3.3-4.6), joined by guards Corey Davis (13.5) and Brooks (10.1) plus 6-6 forward Devin Davis (10.7 & 6.2). Houston's starting 6-8 forward Breaon Brady (4.5 & 4.4) has gone 10 straight games without attempting more than three shots.

Cincinnati: The Bearcats committed only three turnovers against Memphis, which was critical because the team shot barely above 40 percent from the floor for the second straight game. The 6-8 Gary Clark has averaged 14.5 points and 11.5 rebounds in the tourney and averages 12.8 PPG and a team-high 8.4 RPG on the season. Guard Jarron Cumberland added 18 points versus Memphis after going scoreless against SMU but is one of four Bearcats averaging double digits at 11.0. The other two are guard Evans (12.9-4.5-3.2) and the 6-9 Washington (11.3 & 5.4). Cincy's offense has been off so far in this tourney but Mick Cronin's team always brings its defense. The Bearcats are allowing 57.2 PPG (2nd to UVa) on the season, after allowing an average of 55.5 PPG in wins over SMU and Memphis.

The pick: Both Cincy and Houston are comfortably in the field of 68 (announced later today) but the Bearcats have a chance to make a final statement toward earning a No. 1 seed. Cincinnati has won six in a row since that loss at Houston (that's 22 wins in its last 24 games!) and with only four losses all season, is certainly in the mix to be on the top line when the field is announced. Cincinnati is looking not only to avenge its loss at Houston on Feb. 15 but also the one in last year's tourney final (against SMU), as the Bearcats hope to secure their first league postseason crown since winning the C-USA tournament back in 2004. Wichita State led Houston by three points with 1:45 left on Saturday, before the Cougars scored the game's final five points for the win. No such luck here for Houston. Make Cincy an 8* play.